In the global market, due to the economic recession and reduction in government subsidies, the sales of electric vehicles will have limited growth in the foreseeable 2024. But does this mean that batteries and electric vehicles will decline? Maybe not, it’s just that the pace of change in this industry is slower than we imagined – but the change that can be expected is that more and more people are choosing hybrid vehicles called Hybrid or PHEV instead of pure electric vehicles. Although this does not mean that electric vehicles are regaining their popularity, it does mean that people’s demand for pure gasoline vehicles has decreased.
Just two years ago, the world was still in the midst of a boom in the growth of electric vehicles. Few people would have imagined that electric vehicles would encounter such resistance this year. Many companies that originally set the goal of all-electric vehicles in 2030 have now readjusted their electric vehicle launch strategies and postponed their all-electric goals. But does this mean progress on electric vehicles is slow? This is true for pure electric vehicles, but for Toyota Group, which has developed hybrid power very early, it is a continuously successful investment─Toyota Motors (including Lexus) will increase U.S. car sales in the first quarter of 2024 year-on-year 20%, reaching 565,098 vehicles, of which more than 200,000 hybrid vehicles were sold, setting a new record─This allows Toyota to still set a new record for XEV sales despite the haze of Daihatsu Motor’s fraud.
A few years ago, during the era of Tesla’s rise, Toyota’s wavering on electric vehicles seemed very different from the group’s early move into hybrid HEV development. So far, there are still only bZ4X, Lexus RZ and UX 300e, Proace (Citroen Berlingo twin car) sold in Europe, etc. Compared with other manufacturers that have already entered the gasoline-electric twin market early, Toyota’s pace is obviously extremely slow. But even so, Toyota is not doing nothing. In addition to almost all car series having HEV petrol-electric systems, it has also introduced many plug-in petrol-electric vehicles commonly known as PHEV. If it includes pure battery electric vehicles and fuel vehicles , Toyota Group currently has nearly 30 models equipped with electric battery-related technologies.
Europe’s strict emission regulations have contributed to the rise of petrol-electric vehicles
As a representative region with strict regulations on internal combustion engines, the EU’s car sales figures are also closely related to the electric vehicle market. Reuters quoted data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association, saying that the EU’s car sales data in February 2024 increased by 10.1% compared with 2023. Among them, the sales of hybrid electric vehicles HEV increased by 24.7% year-on-year (also increased by 23.5% year-on-year in January). France, Italy, Spain, and Germany are the main contributors to HEV sales growth, while the European Union’s HEV car market share has increased from 25.5% a year ago to 28.9%. In fact, the overall sales of hybrid vehicles in Europe increased by 28% in 2023, with annual sales of 1.26 million units. If the sales of nearly one million PHEV units are included, a total of more than 2.26 million hybrid vehicles were sold in Europe last year. car, the figure is higher than the 2 million units of pure electric vehicles.
In addition to the XEV car series we are familiar with in the past, Nissan also has a relatively special e-Power technology: an internal combustion engine is used to charge the battery (this is called EREV), and the car itself is powered by an electric motor. Nissan itself launched this technology in Japan in 2017 and introduced the technology into their different models. At the same time, in order to comply with European emission regulations, it has also invested heavily in e-Power solutions in Europe. Including traditional HEV vehicles, Nissan sold 110,000 XEV vehicles in Europe last year, more than five times the number in 2022. It is also the third largest XEV vehicle seller in Europe after Toyota and Renault.
However, Nissan’s hybrid sales are still difficult to match its big brother Toyota. Toyota sold more than 610,000 hybrid vehicles in Europe in 2023, which is higher than the combined sales of Renault, Nissan, Hyundai, and Kia. Due to Europe’s own emission regulations, in addition to the Full Hybrid system that can be driven for short periods of time, there are also 12V or 48V light gasoline-electric systems that can assist low-emission engine power. They are usually used by European cars. Since the light gasoline-electric system Most of them do not have the function of pure electric driving, so they are not counted in hybrid sales and are usually counted as fuel vehicles.
▲ European ACEA vehicle sales statistics for January show that hybrid sales account for a high proportion. (Source: ACEA)
What American users need is an intermediate solution
In 2023, sales of hybrid vehicles and battery electric vehicles in the United States both exceeded 1 million. According to Edmunds data, hybrid vehicle sales increased by 65%, while electric vehicle sales increased by 46%. In the first quarter of 2024, Toyota’s Camry Hybrid sales increased by 142.7% in North America─but the overall Camry only increased by 18.6%. Honda’s sales of new energy vehicles including battery electric vehicles, PHEVs, HEVs and other new energy vehicles in the United States increased by 25% – and Honda admitted that the growth proportion of electric vehicles is indeed showing signs of slowing down.
Ford’s sales of gasoline-electric vehicles have also benefited from this trend. Ford’s hybrid truck sales increased by 25% in 2023 alone, exceeding 130,000 units–the best-selling ones are Maverick and F-150, and Ford ranked No. 2 in 2024. Overall sales in the first quarter increased by 7%, mainly due to an 86% increase in electric vehicle sales-including a 42% increase in hybrid vehicle sales. General Motors’ strategy may be different. The company does not offer hybrid vehicles in the United States. This strategic problem is reflected in sales. In the first quarter of 2024, General Motors’ total sales in the United States, its home base, fell by 2%, and sales of pure electric vehicles fell by 2%. Accounting for less than 3%. The Stellantis Group, which owns brands such as Citroën, Peugeot, and Opel, is in a similar situation. The group’s overall sales fell by 10% in the first quarter, but its PHEV sales increased by 82%.
The same goes for Hyundai and Kia Group, which are firmly ranked as the third largest companies in the world. The sales volume of pure battery vehicles of this company is only lower than Tesla in the United States. Therefore, it has been affected by the decline in sales of electric vehicles. The company originally built a car in Georgia. The factory specializes in producing electric vehicles and plans to open the production line in October 2024. However, due to the growth in demand for hybrid vehicles, Hyundai may consider using the factory directly to produce hybrid vehicles. “You’re going to see Hyundai add more and more hybrid options,” the company’s chief operating officer and president of North America said, according to CNBC.
▲ More than 30% of Americans said they would choose a hybrid for their next car. (Source: See it Market)
Petrol-electric trains are not the final solution, but they are the best solution at this stage.
Many European car manufacturers adopt 12V or 48V light gasoline and electricity as transition technology, or use hybrid power as an option to increase power. For example, Mercedes-Benz’s C63 Performance recently launched in Taiwan, BMW’s XM and i8, etc. are all such technologies. products. Because hybrid power can effectively improve engine efficiency based on gasoline vehicles, and at the same time have a certain degree of pure electric driving capabilities, it has become an experimental product used by European manufacturers.
But don’t get me wrong, the sales growth of hybrid vehicles such as PHEV, Hybrid, and EREV is not because electric vehicles will decline, but because consumers recognize that electric vehicles will become a future trend and make a moderate choice. When the convenience of replenishing power is far less than that of traditional fuel, this type of hybrid vehicle is the best choice: the carbon emission is lower than that of pure internal combustion engine vehicles, and it also avoids the range anxiety of electric vehicles (especially for Europe, a vast region like North America). Compared with Hybrids and EREVs that can only be refueled, PHEVs that can be charged and refueled at the same time inherit the advantages and disadvantages of both. Originally, the pure electric driving range of PHEVs was generally around 40 to 60 kilometers, but now it is around 80 to 100 kilometers. kilometers, it can be seen that the trend of PHEV is mainly to gradually increase mileage and reduce the demand for gasoline.
But even if hybrid vehicles can be seen as a transitional period to electrification, it also means that the transition to full electrification of cars will take longer. Many companies spend huge sums of money to develop dedicated platforms for electric vehicles, but companies such as BMW, Stellantis, and Benz that adopt a gasoline-electric symbiosis platform strategy will provide greater flexibility during this lengthy gasoline-electric conversion period. But for new companies focusing on electric vehicles, the situation may not be so optimistic. The number of layoffs in companies including Rivian, Lucid and other companies is increasing. Although the situation is different from the Chinese market, it seems that no matter which market they are in, the number of layoffs is increasing. Traditional large companies still have an absolute advantage.
By the way, even if Tesla’s market share may decrease, the title of the largest electric vehicle company should not change hands so easily.
(First image source: Unsplash)
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