“If AI concept stocks have no performance before the end of September, then this year’s AI stocks will be over!” This is our title today. We have been analyzing the stock market for nearly 30 years. As I said before, structural analysis is more important than anything else. , the structure is ever-changing, but it is a logical inference. For example, today the Taiwan stock market fell 222 points. The reason is of course that the U.S. technology stocks fell sharply last Friday, and even fell by 3%. The structure has the so-called “rank” According to the concept, the representative AI chip stock in the US stock market is NVDA (US), which fell below the quarterly line on Friday. The US server index Super Micro (SMCI-US) fell nearly 8% in a single day last week, corresponding to the broad range of Taiwan stocks. DaDa (2382-TW) Gigabyte (2376-TW) Wistron (3231-TW) fell below the previous low today. TSMC ADR (TSM-US) took the lead and fell below the half-year line in the US stock market. TSMC (2330TW) fell 3.2%. Of course, it also If it breaks the half-year line, then let me ask? Will the weighted index of Taiwan stocks also test the half-year line? It cannot be denied that TSMC Huida Feiban uses AI as the main axis of the rise of technology stocks this year, so when TSMC (2330-TW) breaks through again Half-year line, chain reaction, investment friends should not have too much expectations for AI, and the same is true for the index. In the analysis of the wave period, the teacher mentioned that as long as the S&P 500 index does not fall below 4200 points before the end of September, it will not be a short position. The S&P index closed at 4450 points on Friday, with less than two weeks left until the end of September. It seems that It is not easy to break through 4200 points and become a short position. Therefore, under the premise that the bulls are just pulling back, AI stocks have no performance at the end of September. Of course, it means that the protagonist of Q4 will be replaced. As I said at the beginning, if AI stocks Concept stocks did not rise but fell before September. This year’s AI stock market is over.
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From the practical classification of the structure, we can roughly divide it into electronic and non-electronic, and non-electronic can be divided into financial and transmission. For the index, our plan is to pass the end of September, that is, after the Mid-Autumn Festival, the bulls will rise again, that is, everyone The “Mid-Autumn Festival market change” is mentioned every year. The probability of the Mid-Autumn Festival market changing over the years has been as high as over 85%. Therefore, we are quite optimistic about the stock market, because the pullback of the stock market in September will help the upward turn in October. The next step is just what kind of stocks everyone should plan before the fourth quarter.
If there is no AI in electronic stocks, what about Apple stocks? The latest Apple news is that the pre-sale of i-PHONE 15 Pro Max in China has been crazy, but Ming-Chi Kuo, the most powerful Apple analyst on the surface, just this morning It is mentioned that the reason for the good pre-sales of i-PHONE 15 Pro Max is not because of strong demand, but because of the late mass production and small shipments, so there is an illusion of rush buying. It severely slapped Apple in the face, so it is not suitable to invest in Apple concept stocks. Without AI and Apple concept stocks, electronic stocks may be relatively eclipsed in Q4.
Therefore, we maintain our view unchanged and are optimistic about shipping stocks in terms of heavyweight stocks, especially Evergreen (2603-TW), which surged more than 8% last Friday. It only fell 1.2% today due to the sharp decline in the market. BDI The bulk index rose for 8 consecutive days. On Friday, the three major legal entities bought a total of more than 26,000 lots. With the support of legal entities, the fun begins. Next, the teacher discovered that the over-the-counter buying index is far stronger than the weighted index. The group that can be bought over the counter with overall weight is of course biotechnology stocks. The concept of weight-loss drugs is currently the leader in global pharmaceutical stocks. A week ago, I recommended Youhua (4120-TW) ) still suffered a loss of 1.8 yuan in the first half of the year, but it rose by more than 20% in just one week. This is the reaction theme, and another stock, Lamex (1795-TW), is finishing with low volume. Finally, there is the concept of low-orbit satellites. We selected two levels. Shengdaco (3491-TW) once reached the neckline of 160 yuan in early trading today and closed at 155.5 yuan in late trading. It bucked the trend and rose slightly by 1.3%, because there was no large amount. It is not a long shipment. Shengmao (3305-TA-TW) also has the concept of AI low track. Since Shengmao’s revenue mainly comes from tin paste, the rise and fall of tin prices in basic metals is the focus. Crude oil has continued to rise and hit highs in recent days, driving the The quotations of raw material iron ore have risen. The base metal that rose the most last week was LME tin. This is the main reason why we are optimistic about Shengmao.
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Source of article: Analyst Qiu Dingtai/Hengda Investment Consulting
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