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The 6 million stock deposit group comes here!Looking at the table of 14 financial holding companies, it is estimated that the profit rate of 6.5% is the highest.


The 6 million financial stock depositors come here! The latest estimates of annual dividends and yield rates for 14 financial holding companies in 2024 are released. According to the trial calculation of the closing price of the legal person on the 17th, the current dividend yield is 6.52% for Development Gold (2883), and the second highest is 5.42% for South China Gold. CITIC Gold (2891) has a sharp rise of 5% in one week, and the yield has dropped to The third place is 5.38%, but experts also remind that the retained earnings of some life insurance financial holding companies, such as Development Capital and Cathay Financial Holdings (2882), must first recognize the investment losses on the previous year’s accounts, which may affect the final dividend distribution. If we want to take advantage of the low-end layout, we should give priority to banking, securities and financial holdings.

Extended reading: A chart showing the profit reshuffle of 14 financial holding companies in October, with only one company, Shin Kong Financial, losing money

The 6 million stock deposit group comes here! Looking at the table of 14 gold holding companies, it is estimated that this 6.5% yield is the highest. Picture/taken from Getty Images (Yiu Yu Hoi via Getty Images)

Financial holdings are entering the peak season for legal talks one after another, including the general managers and senior executives of many financial holdings such as CITIC Financial Holdings, SinoPac Financial Holdings, Taishin Financial Holdings, Fubon Financial Holdings, and Huanan Financial Holdings. They are optimistic that next year’s dividends will have a chance of being better than this year’s. Uni-President Investment Consulting believes that judging from the profit of financial holdings in the first ten months of this year of about 360 billion yuan, there is a chance that the profit for the whole year will be 380 billion to 400 billion yuan, which is three times higher than the 283.2 billion yuan in 2022. ~40% more.

Huang Wenqing, vice president of Taishin Investment Trust, said that the profits of financial holdings have rebounded significantly this year. Financial institutions have experienced a once-in-a-century exchange transaction SWAP, which has grown significantly. The stock market is good, and securities-related profits have also grown significantly. Financial holdings are going well this year. After the impact of the epidemic, normalcy will return next year, and dividends will be better than this year. The stock price is still undervalued. At this time, investment holdings are not a big problem.

Amid the fermentation of promising dividend themes, the stock price of Jin Holdings generally recovered significantly last week. CITIC Gold (2891) originally estimated that the dividend yield next year would be higher than that of South China Gold (2880). However, after Fa said he was optimistic about next year’s dividend, foreign investors entered the market and bought heavily. The stock price rose by more than 5% on a week-to-month basis, temporarily placing the yield in second place. Third, development gold also rose by nearly 4.37% last week, the second highest increase among the overall financial holdings.

So next year, is there a chance that the profit of Financial Holdings will grow by more than 30%? Experts warn that you may not be so optimistic!

As the schedule approaches the last two months of the year-end settlement, many financial depositors have begun to “do their homework” and try to calculate the dividends and dividend yields that may be distributed by various financial holding companies, seeking to defeat the 3% inflation and fixed rate. Save for long-term investments with low interest rates.

If we estimate full-year earnings per share based on a 10% discount on the profit progress in the first ten months of this year, and then estimate based on the pre-epidemic dividend distribution rate in 2021, the “dividend king” next year may still be Fubon Gold (2881), with a allocation of The highest possible dividend is 2.7 yuan. Fubon Gold’s highest dividend in history was 4 yuan, and last year it was 2 yuan.

Secondly, Cathay Gold also has the opportunity to allot shares at a price of 2 yuan. Last year, Cathay Gold relied on its capital reserve to allocate a dividend of 0.9 yuan. However, the Financial Supervisory Commission will limit the reserve allocation next year. Cathay Gold earned 65.2 billion yuan in the first ten months, and banks accounted for 278 billion, life insurance accounts for 33.3 billion yuan, but there are still 140 billion yuan of unrealized losses on the investment account in the first half of the year, retained earnings of 480 billion yuan, and distributable surplus of about 121.9 billion yuan. How much dividends can subsidiaries pay to Financial Holdings? This Friday’s Dharma conference will attract much attention.

Mega Gold (2886) may also have a chance to pay dividends of NT$2 next year. As a leader in official stocks, dividends contribute to the national treasury. In the past, the distribution rate has always been as high as 80~85%. Last year, it distributed 100% of the dividend, with 1.24 per share. Yuan, this year’s profit is even better. In the first ten months, the profit per share has exceeded 2 yuan. The legal person estimates that the rights issue next year will be around 1.9 to 2 yuan. Other stocks with dividends exceeding 1 yuan include CITIC Gold, Yuanta Gold, First Gold, Huanan Gold, and Yushan Gold, all of which have opportunities.

To be able to fight inflation, cheap prices are also a major incentive. Generally, financial stock depositors like to compare the dividend yield with time deposits and inflation. If we calculate the closing price last Friday, one share of Development Gold is less than 12 yuan, with the highest yield of 6.5%, followed by Huanan Gold’s 5.42 % and CITIC Gold’s 5.38% are the highest. Those with more than 5% include SinoPac Gold (2890) and Yuan Dai Gold (2885).

However, experts also remind us to pay attention to the fact that the retained earnings of life insurance financial holdings must be given priority to make up for the uncompensated losses of last year’s investment positions. They may not be able to allot shares, and they must also be in line with IFRS 17 Bulletin to retain profits, etc. Banks, securities and financial holdings are the first choice for investment.

Li Fangguo: Life insurance financial holdings must first make up for losses. Cathay Pacific and development capital dividends may not be as impressive as profits.

Li Fangguo, chairman of Uni-President Investment Consulting, also said that last year the life insurance industry faced a storm of epidemic prevention insurance claims and bond investment losses, but they have not yet fully raised the dividend. When allocating dividends next year, they must first be deducted from distributable earnings. Therefore, companies such as Cathay Pacific Although the profits of life insurance financial holding companies such as China Gold, Development Gold, and Shin Kong Gold have rebounded or looked impressive, some may not have that much dividends or are still unable to allocate dividends. The yield rate seems to be very cheap, but it has not been officially announced yet. , it is recommended to be cautious. Financial holdings with banks and securities as the main body are better targets.

Huang Wenqing reminds: Next year’s financial holdings’ profits will not be as conservative as this year’s financial holdings communique No. 17

Huang Wenqing reminded that financial holding profits next year (2024) should not be as high as this year. In addition, the life insurance industry is about to face the accounting demon IFRS17 communique. By then, the high interest rate policies in hand in previous years will be listed as liabilities, and more reserves will be needed. This will also affect the company’s decision on whether to distribute all profits, and there are many variables in the calculation of dividends from life insurance stocks. Huang Wenqing believes that if financial depositors want to make arrangements, it is safer to use banks, securities financial holdings or government-owned bank financial holdings. However, he also believes that unless there are major changes in the financial industry, it will not be good for at most one or two years. Even if the natural growth is low, it is still a stable investment target. In addition, the recent sharp decline in U.S. bond yields has been beneficial to the performance of the bond market. Therefore, whether it is really impossible to allocate shares will not be known until the end of the year.

It is understood that although the dividend yield is tentatively estimated to be as high as 6.5%. However, the current unrealized loss of other equity items in the financial report of the Development Bank in the first half of the year was 49.2 billion yuan. Although the loss of 73.8 billion yuan at the end of last year rebounded by almost 25 billion yuan, there is a chance that it will continue to improve in the third quarter, and the retained earnings in the first half of the year were 75.4 billion yuan. It will continue to rise. Although it made 18.8 billion yuan in the first ten months, with 16.8 billion shares issued, if it allocates 0.8 yuan, it will cost 13.4 billion yuan in cash. Can it be distributed? I’m afraid it will take the third season to further clarify the doubts.

  • Yahoo Finance special correspondent Ye Yiru: 22 years of experience in mainstream financial media. From the Web1.0 bubble in 2000 to the Meta Yuanverse Web3.0, he has witnessed the rise and fall of Taiwan’s large and small enterprise groups and has experienced five international financial crises. We believe that finance is life and is everywhere. No matter how difficult financial knowledge is, we should explain it in a simple way. Everyone, young and old, should manage money. If you don’t manage money, money will not care about you.

The article is in Chinese

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