From de-zeroing to economic recovery China’s impact on the world situation in 2023-News-Rti Central Radio

From de-zeroing to economic recovery China’s impact on the world situation in 2023-News-Rti Central Radio
From de-zeroing to economic recovery China’s impact on the world situation in 2023-News-Rti Central Radio
Hundreds of millions of people are expected to return from major cities to their hometowns during the peak of the Spring Festival travel season during the Chinese New Year. (Reuters/Dazhi Image)

After a turbulent and challenging year, China enters 2023 with great uncertainty. After lifting the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) lockdown policy, China may be expected to see the light at the end of the epidemic tunnel this year. However, the epidemic is still severe, the downward pressure on the economy is still there, and international isolation has not been completely resolved. These internal and external troubles in China will also affect the world trend in 2023.

Clearing is over, looking forward to life returning to normal

The chaos caused by China’s sudden and ill-prepared exit late last year from a zero-zero policy that persisted for more than three years has continued into the new year, with much of the country facing an unprecedented wave of infections.

But the unexpected reopening also offers a glimmer of hope for many that life in China may finally resume after three years of severe restrictions and self-imposed global isolation, as the country joins the rest of the world in learning to live with the virus normal.

exploded across the country“Paper Revolution”The “dynamic zeroing” policy, marked by Chinese President Xi Jinping, came to an abrupt and dramatic end late last year amid the protests. In some places, there are rare voices calling for Xi Jinping and the Communist Party to “step down”. These protests may be over, but the frustration has not dissipated. The road to China’s economic recovery will still be long and complicated.

Coronavirus spread fears more infections

The most urgent and daunting task facing China in the new year is how to deal with the fallout from its botched exit from the zeroing policy. The sudden reopening of the lockdown led to a surge in cases, and authorities were barely prepared to deal with a surge in the number of patients and deaths.

China’s fragile health system is overwhelmed: Fever and cold medicines are hard to come by, hospitals are overwhelmed with a shortage of doctors and nurses, and crematoria struggle to cope with the influx of remains.

Experts warn that the worst is yet to come. While major metropolises like Beijing may have seen the peak of the epidemic, less developed cities and the vast rural hinterland will still face more infections.

There is a lack of medical care in China’s rural areas, and patients sit on the side of the road on IV drips. (Picture: Weibo)

Hundreds of millions of people will return home from big cities for Lunar New Year, China’s most important family reunion festival, which is expected to bring the virus to vulnerable rural areas where vaccination rates are low and medical resources are scarcer.

Economic pressure is expected to recover in the second quarter

Strict epidemic prevention restrictions in the past put China out of sync with the rest of the world, disrupting supply chains, hurting international companies, and hurting trade and investment flows between China and other countries.

Any pick-up in Chinese growth would provide an important impetus to more international travel and production for economies reliant on Chinese demand. But rising demand will also push up energy and raw material prices, putting upward pressure on global inflation.

“In the short term, I think the Chinese economy may bring chaos rather than progress, for one simple reason: China is ill-prepared to deal with the COVID-19 outbreak,” said senior sovereign analyst Bo Zhuang.

Analysts at Capital Economics expect China’s economy to shrink 0.8% in the first quarter of 2023 before rebounding in the second quarter.

Other experts also expect the economy to recover after March. Economists at HSBC expect China to shrink 0.5% in the first quarter but grow 5% in 2023 as a whole.

reopen to the world

Some countries have opened their arms to the return of Chinese tourists. But some countries are more cautious and require proof of virus testing.

As China emerges from self-isolation, all eyes will be on whether China can repair its reputation and relations with the West.

China’s relations with the West and its neighbors have soured over issues such as the origin of the COVID-19 virus, trade, territorial claims, Beijing’s human rights record, and close ties to Russia, which started the war in Ukraine. In-person high-level diplomacy has been frozen, as have exchanges among policy advisers, business groups and citizens.

Xi Jinping attended the Group of 20 (G20) and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summits late last year, expressing his willingness to repair relations with the United States and its allies.

Chinese President Xi Jinping participated in the G20 summit, actively engaged in dialogue with other countries, and did not wear a mask when entering the country. (Flipping Canadian CBC data screen)

Now, the channels of communication have been reopened, and more high-level exchanges are in the pipeline. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, French President Emmanuel Macron, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni all have plans to visit Beijing this year.

It is difficult to improve relations between Russia and the West

Despite preparing to restore relations with the West, Xi Jinping has also made it clear that he will curb the influence of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region; moreover, he has no illusions that the two world superpowers can resolve their fundamental differences and put aside their increasingly fierce competition.

Tensions could flare up again in the new year over Taiwan, technological containment and China’s support for Russia.

At the end of last year, Xi Jinping held a virtual meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, stating that China is “ready to cooperate with Russia”, “opposes hegemonism and power politics”, opposes unilateralism, protectionism and “bullying”.

Beijing has long refused to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, instead denouncing Western sanctions against Russia and backing the Kremlin’s view, criticizing the U.S. and NATO for their stance on the conflict.

In recent months, as Russia suffered a humiliating military defeat in Ukraine, Chinese state media appeared to have moderated its pro-Russian rhetoric somewhat.

But few experts believe that China will keep its distance from Russia, and that the two countries’ interdependence and geopolitical alliance remain strong, including their shared vision of a “new world order”.

Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, a think tank in Washington, said, “The war in Ukraine has caused troubles for China in the past year and affected China’s interests in Europe. But the damage is still there. Not big enough to make China abandon Russia.”

further reading

· Control public opinion China expands control of overseas Chinese media

· From Wang Yi to Qin Gang

· Where will the US-China relationship go in 2023 as Xi Jinping promotes tensions?

The article is in Chinese

Tags: dezeroing economic recovery Chinas impact world situation #2023NewsRti Central Radio

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