■Forecast of new policy stocks by quasi-economic minister
arts.Chen Chunlin, Cai Wumu
Former Chongyue chairman Guo Zhihui announced that he would join the cabinet as quasi-manager. During this period, foreign investors sold more than 2,000 Taiwanese stocks.billion, the Taiwan dollar exchange rate fell below 32.6Yuan, the market index fell nearly a thousand points, despite many market interpretations, such as the weight stock TSMC (2330)Fa said that overall chip shipments grew by 10% annually.Above, revised down to 10%Left and right, it is believed that the market outlook is not as expected. Secondly, the subsequent development of the geopolitical war will affect oil prices and the global economy if it expands. The third is the U.S. Price Index (CPI)Unable to effectively suppress it, negative factors such as the delay in interest rate cuts have forced foreign capital to flee.
The eight major government stock banks and investment trusts were over-buying The new president and new cabinet will probably have 520 membersQuotes
However, at the same time, the eight major government stock banks and investment banks bought nearly 50 billion yuan, and the financing balance representing retail investors still reached the level of 280 billion yuan, showing that market confidence has not collapsed. The next step should be a competition between the long and short sides. If investors have not forgotten the problem of deep pockets, in June and October last year, there was a lot of bearish sentiment from foreign investors. With the momentum injected by local funds, the index rose all the way from May to May, and foreign investors finally had to switch from selling to backhand. The drama of buying, although the ruling party is still in power this time 520, after all, there is a new president, a new cabinet, new people, and a new atmosphere. From 520 in previous years, especially in the year of the newly elected, the market index rose by as much as 70% in the previous month, and it should not be the same this year. exception.
Get involved in ICoptoelectronics, green energy, biotechnology, environmental protection Quasi-economic long-term industrial background is highly anticipated by the market
It is worth noting that the market index is at a high point, and the stock prices of categories or individual stocks with certain industry prospects have risen to a high level, and the overall price-to-earnings ratio is obviously on the high side. Therefore, market insiders also have this interpretation, and the short-term pressure is To prepare for the future rise, that is to say, this year’s 520 market will be extended to mid-May, because there are still more than 100 billion in short-term float that need to be cleared, and April will be the time when the short side is more aggressive.
The new Minister of Economic Affairs, Guo Zhihui, comes from the industry and has a thirty-year industrial background, spanning various fields such as semiconductors, optoelectronics, green energy, biotechnology, and environmental protection. He is hailed as a “slash economic man” by the outside world. He has not yet taken office. When asked how to deal with the problems of water and electricity shortages, the public has high hopes for some innovation. Most of the capital market analyzes the concept stock sector based on its business field. The Investment Research Department of Lizhou Investment and Research Department synthesized recent research reports from various securities firms and financial institutions. It is concluded that the two short-term bullish groups in the stock picking sectors include semiconductors and new energy, which investors can consider in their layout.
In addition, after the Hualien earthquake on April 3, the damaged Heping Power Plant had not yet been fully repaired. The power outage occurred again on April 15, and the backup capacity was less than 3%. Taipower urgently sought help from TSMC and the generating units of major power consumers to provide backup power. The load capacity was increased to 6% to avoid a power outage across Taiwan. The summer power consumption peak is about to enter. In addition, the No. 1 unit of Nuclear Power Plant No. 3 will be decommissioned in July, and the power shortage problem will continue to spread.
Water and electricity shortages are the top priority for the new economic minister when he takes office. The heavy electrical and cable groups are optimistic about Taipower’s big order.
Affected by the mild winter and less spring rain this year, water conditions in various parts of Taiwan are tight. 14 of the 21 livelihood reservoirs have dropped below 30%, and 6 have dropped below 30%. The water storage of Shimen Reservoir, which mainly supplies water to Zhuke, has dropped below 25%, and Baoshan Reservoir has dropped below 25%. With only 22% left, the issue of water and electricity shortages has come to the fore again, and it is also the top priority for the new economic minister when he takes office. The stock prices of related stocks have fluctuated recently, so they have also been included in the new energy category by the market.
Last week, the Taiwan stock market was affected by the Israeli-Israeli conflict and the decline of U.S. stock indexes and Nasdaq. The index fell 1,200 points. Funds flowed from electronics stocks to construction, heavy electricity, cables, green energy, water resources and other new long-term stocks. To avoid risks, heavy electric stocks Huacheng (1519), ZTE (1513), Shidian (1503), Yali (1514), and Datong (2371) continued to rise, and spilled over to the cable group, including Daya (1609), More than ten stocks such as Heji (1618), Huarong (1608), and Yitai (1616) are hitting the daily limit. Although funds have taken profits this week, due to water shortage and power shortage problems still need to be solved, it is estimated that 520 There will still be a wave of performance before and after the new economic minister takes office.
Image source: Pixabay
※For the wonderful full text, please see Issue 1235 of “Finance Weekly”, published on April 26, 2024.
※Financial Weekly1235More exciting articles in this issue:
◎Publisher’s motto＞Press back is the buying point
◎Cover story＞Prediction of new policy stocks by quasi-economic minister
◎I am the best at financial management – Baoshan Reception Room> “From Raphael to Van Gogh: Collection Exhibition of the British National Gallery” An art feast that spans four hundred years and reveals the style of the masters
◎News Hotline＞In the face of power outages and power rationing, energy storage cabinets have become an urgent need in emergency response
◎Global financial management perspective＞Huida and Tesla are optimistic about the future of robots
◎AI Intelligent Trading＞Rewards will fall out!
◎Current events in the currency circle＞Black swan events in the currency circle?A look at cryptocurrency development from current events
◎House market observation＞Things to pay attention to when buying a house based on the fair association’s punishment cases – 101~102 years (10)
◎Editor’s point of view＞Recovery + defense and aerospace industry is ready for development
◎Dad’s father picks good stocks＞Creating a global leader in touch technology with multiple patents (Part 2)
◎Wealth Building Guide＞Understand the four major risks in life to help you buy the right insurance!
◎House market magnifying glass＞Discuss the development trend of the housing market in the second half of 2024 from the perspective of stock exchange market and economic fundamentals
◎Lizhou Book Excerpts＞”The Road to the Master: Painless Financial Management for Office Workers, the Magical Journey to Earn Money” Learn from the best examples and move towards the road to an investment master
◎Let’s be kind to everyone＞May we all become stars with our own light
